Closing spread
STL -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 29–21 since 1999
Meetings average 42.8 points. ARI are 24-25-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 13:30 | 2 | 10 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 12:09 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 10:36 | 1 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 10:00 | 2 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 9:49 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 9:36 | 10 | 73 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 5:24 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q1 5:09 | 7 | 14 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| LA | Q1 1:44 | 3 | -15 | Punt | 0–10 |
| ARI | Q1 0:10 | 6 | 45 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| LA | Q2 12:24 | 7 | 32 | Punt | 0–17 |
| ARI | Q2 9:25 | 8 | 38 | Punt | 0–17 |
| LA | Q2 4:43 | 10 | 28 | Punt | 0–17 |
| ARI | Q2 0:45 | 5 | 41 | Opp touchdown | 7–17 |
| ARI | Q2 0:07 | 1 | 25 | End of half | 7–17 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 6 | Punt | 7–17 |
| LA | Q3 12:51 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 7–17 |
| ARI | Q3 11:46 | 10 | 54 | Touchdown | 7–24 |
| LA | Q3 7:02 | 4 | 26 | Punt | 7–24 |
| ARI | Q3 5:50 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–24 |
| LA | Q3 4:16 | 8 | 76 | Turnover | 7–24 |
| ARI | Q3 0:33 | 10 | 70 | Touchdown | 7–31 |
| LA | Q4 10:54 | 8 | 32 | Punt | 7–31 |
| ARI | Q4 7:11 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 7–31 |
| LA | Q4 3:17 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 7–31 |
| ARI | Q4 1:45 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 22/34 | 287 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 19 | 71 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 9 | 33 | 3.7 | 2 |
| Josh Scobey | 9 | 23 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Damien Anderson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
6.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.12
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.68
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.