Closing spread
STL -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 29–20 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43 points. ARI are 23-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 22/34 | 287 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 19 | 71 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 9 | 33 | 3.7 | 2 |
| Josh Scobey | 9 | 23 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Damien Anderson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
6.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.12
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.68
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.