2004 · Week 15

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Patrick Ramsey

26·16

49ers

San Francisco

QB Ken Dorsey

3Com Park · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

WAS -6.5

Total

36.5

Model margin

-2.9est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge map49ers
  • -0.121EPA / play-0.155
  • 38.9%Success rate37.7%
  • -0.102EPA / dropback-0.120
  • -0.145EPA / rush-0.212
  • 6.6%Explosive rate5.6%
  • 31.9%Third-down rate33.2%
  • 56.8%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
  • 1.03Points / drive1.10
  • 2.5%Turnover rate3.8%
  • -0.104EPA / play allowed+0.068

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 8–5 since 1999

SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.2 points. SF are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W17SF @ WAS27–10SF
2022 · W16WAS @ SF20–37SF
2020 · W14WAS @ SF23–15WAS
2019 · W7SF @ WAS9–0SF
2017 · W6SF @ WAS24–26WAS
2014 · W12WAS @ SF13–17SF
2013 · W12SF @ WAS27–6SF
2011 · W9SF @ WAS19–11SF

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Ramsey18/2721410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clinton Portis351103.10
Rod Gardner11111.00
Ladell Betts382.70
Patrick Ramsey1-1-1.00

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ken Dorsey20/3820624

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Hicks11373.40
Kevan Barlow6183.00
Ken Dorsey100.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.52.7%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%3.9%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

3.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.3%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.30
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.19
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.92