2004 · Week 15
Final
3Com Park · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
WAS -6.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
-2.9est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.121EPA / play-0.155
- 38.9%Success rate37.7%
- -0.102EPA / dropback-0.120
- -0.145EPA / rush-0.212
- 6.6%Explosive rate5.6%
- 31.9%Third-down rate33.2%
- 56.8%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
- 1.03Points / drive1.10
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.8%
- -0.104EPA / play allowed+0.068
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 9–5 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. SF are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | WAS–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 72 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| SF | Q1 9:14 | 10 | 66 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| WAS | Q1 4:50 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 7–7 |
| SF | Q1 3:15 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| WAS | Q1 2:53 | 8 | 28 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| SF | Q2 14:45 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–7 |
| WAS | Q2 12:28 | 7 | 61 | Field goal | 13–7 |
| SF | Q2 8:28 | 2 | 7 | Turnover | 13–7 |
| WAS | Q2 7:21 | 3 | 7 | Field goal | 16–7 |
| SF | Q2 5:17 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 16–7 |
| WAS | Q2 3:30 | 3 | 5 | Safety | 16–9 |
| SF | Q2 2:08 | 7 | 34 | Opp touchdown | 23–9 |
| SF | Q2 0:48 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 23–9 |
| WAS | Q2 0:16 | 2 | 8 | End of half | 23–9 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 31 | Punt | 23–9 |
| WAS | Q3 12:51 | 15 | 88 | Field goal | 26–9 |
| SF | Q3 3:32 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 26–9 |
| WAS | Q3 1:34 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 26–9 |
| SF | Q3 0:16 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 26–9 |
| WAS | Q4 14:47 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 26–9 |
| SF | Q4 12:55 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 26–9 |
| WAS | Q4 11:50 | 5 | 45 | Turnover | 26–9 |
| SF | Q4 9:22 | 10 | 66 | Touchdown | 26–16 |
| WAS | Q4 4:26 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 26–16 |
| SF | Q4 3:09 | 4 | 1 | Turnover | 26–16 |
| WAS | Q4 2:34 | 3 | 12 | End of half | 26–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Ramsey | 18/27 | 214 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 35 | 110 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Rod Gardner | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Patrick Ramsey | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Dorsey | 20/38 | 206 | 2 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Hicks | 11 | 37 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ken Dorsey | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
3.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.3%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.30
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.19
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.92