Closing spread
SEA -7
Total
44
Model margin
-0.7est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
4.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.097EPA / play+0.035
- 38.1%Success rate44.4%
- -0.074EPA / dropback+0.090
- -0.128EPA / rush-0.040
- 7.0%Explosive rate9.3%
- 34.7%Third-down rate37.2%
- 58.0%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
- 1.19Points / drive1.81
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.081EPA / play allowed+0.004
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 30–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 9 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. SEA are 26-21-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 21/33 | 248 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 23 | 65 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 10/26 | 128 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 30 | 154 | 5.1 | 3 |
| Maurice Morris | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
4.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.2%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.26
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.99
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.69