Closing spread
PIT -5
Total
34
Model margin
+4.4est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Steelers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.113EPA / play+0.044
- 38.4%Success rate44.9%
- -0.127EPA / dropback+0.136
- -0.096EPA / rush-0.028
- 7.6%Explosive rate10.4%
- 35.0%Third-down rate44.9%
- 51.3%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 1.22Points / drive1.83
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.136EPA / play allowed-0.133
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 18/32 | 177 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jamal Lewis | 14 | 26 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Chester Taylor | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 14/19 | 221 | 2 | 1 |
| Tommy Maddox | 1/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 27 | 117 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Tommy Maddox | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.7%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.71
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+4.36