Closing spread
DET -6
Total
37
Model margin
+3.6est.
DET perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.240EPA / play-0.071
- 35.2%Success rate39.8%
- -0.283EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.177EPA / rush-0.046
- 6.8%Explosive rate9.0%
- 25.7%Third-down rate32.3%
- 43.9%Red-zone TD rate51.0%
- 0.78Points / drive1.23
- 3.4%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.102EPA / play allowed+0.013
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Hutchinson | 20/35 | 114 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 22 | 109 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Bobby Wade | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 15/30 | 166 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jones | 25 | 123 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Joey Harrington | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
3.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.8%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.09
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.65