Closing spread
MIA -9
Total
40.5
Model margin
+5.8est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.147EPA / play-0.173
- 38.6%Success rate35.8%
- -0.067EPA / dropback-0.181
- -0.251EPA / rush-0.159
- 7.6%Explosive rate6.9%
- 29.2%Third-down rate34.6%
- 50.7%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 1.18Points / drive0.97
- 3.8%Turnover rate3.7%
- -0.002EPA / play allowed-0.054
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CLE lead 6–5 since 1999
Meetings average 39.5 points. MIA are 3-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CLE–MIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CLE | Q1 13:16 | 5 | 22 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 10:54 | 5 | 49 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| CLE | Q1 9:00 | 3 | 67 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| MIA | Q1 7:32 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 7–7 |
| CLE | Q1 4:48 | 11 | 29 | Punt | 7–7 |
| MIA | Q2 14:04 | 4 | 1 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| CLE | Q2 12:20 | 4 | 15 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| MIA | Q2 10:29 | 14 | 36 | Punt | 7–7 |
| MIA | Q2 3:47 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 7–7 |
| CLE | Q2 3:38 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 7–7 |
| MIA | Q2 1:44 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 7–7 |
| CLE | Q2 0:30 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–7 |
| CLE | Q3 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 7–7 |
| MIA | Q3 14:53 | 7 | 7 | Punt | 7–7 |
| CLE | Q3 12:07 | 4 | 17 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| CLE | Q3 9:51 | 3 | 9 | Missed field goal | 7–7 |
| CLE | Q3 8:01 | 0 | 0 | Missed field goal | 7–7 |
| MIA | Q3 7:54 | 2 | 7 | Punt | 7–7 |
| MIA | Q3 6:41 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 7–7 |
| CLE | Q3 5:08 | 6 | 39 | Punt | 7–7 |
| MIA | Q3 1:03 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 7–7 |
| CLE | Q4 14:40 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 7–7 |
| MIA | Q4 13:21 | 7 | 32 | Punt | 7–7 |
| CLE | Q4 11:18 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 7–7 |
| MIA | Q4 8:28 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 7–7 |
| CLE | Q4 5:45 | 9 | 13 | Punt | 7–7 |
| MIA | Q4 1:49 | 7 | 40 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| CLE | Q4 0:07 | 1 | 42 | End of half | 7–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke McCown | 9/16 | 161 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Suggs | 38 | 143 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Luke McCown | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Feeley | 25/43 | 176 | 1 | 0 |
| Sage Rosenfels | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Morris | 17 | 69 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Travis Minor | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Vick King | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.4%
Expected total
41.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.98
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.34
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+5.80