Closing spread
DEN -4
Total
50.5
Model margin
-0.6est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.059EPA / play-0.012
- 45.7%Success rate41.5%
- +0.154EPA / dropback+0.035
- -0.056EPA / rush-0.091
- 10.0%Explosive rate8.8%
- 38.2%Third-down rate34.6%
- 55.7%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 1.84Points / drive1.47
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.069EPA / play allowed+0.076
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 6–4 since 1999
Meetings average 39.1 points. TEN are 3-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 21/26 | 303 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuben Droughns | 22 | 91 | 4.1 | 2 |
| Tatum Bell | 12 | 44 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Volek | 8/20 | 111 | 0 | 2 |
| Doug Johnson | 4/7 | 26 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 14 | 59 | 4.2 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.5%
Expected total
46.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.15
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.59