Closing spread
IND -7
Total
56
Model margin
+4.5est.
IND perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 8–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46 points. IND are 4-8-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 12:23 | 12 | 66 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 7:40 | 5 | 87 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| IND | Q1 4:48 | 11 | 56 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| LAC | Q2 14:18 | 4 | 37 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| IND | Q2 12:46 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 10–3 |
| LAC | Q2 11:12 | 8 | 61 | Touchdown | 17–3 |
| IND | Q2 7:09 | 5 | 28 | Field goal | 17–6 |
| LAC | Q2 4:30 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 17–6 |
| IND | Q2 2:50 | 8 | 70 | Field goal | 17–9 |
| LAC | Q2 0:18 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–9 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 17–9 |
| LAC | Q3 14:04 | 9 | 55 | Touchdown | 24–9 |
| IND | Q3 9:24 | 7 | 54 | Touchdown | 24–16 |
| LAC | Q3 6:11 | 11 | 66 | Touchdown | 31–22 |
| IND | Q4 14:55 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 31–23 |
| LAC | Q4 14:42 | 9 | 31 | Punt | 31–23 |
| IND | Q4 9:25 | 12 | 56 | Missed field goal | 31–23 |
| LAC | Q4 4:47 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 31–23 |
| IND | Q4 3:42 | 9 | 80 | Touchdown | 31–31 |
| LAC | Q4 0:56 | 3 | 22 | Turnover | 31–31 |
| IND | Q4 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 31–31 |
| IND | OT | 4 | 61 | Field goal | 31–34 |
| IND | OT | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 31–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 27/44 | 383 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 22 | 86 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
4.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.2%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.97
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.54
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.