Closing spread
SEA -5.5
Total
41
Model margin
+0.5est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.032EPA / play+0.035
- 41.4%Success rate44.4%
- -0.047EPA / dropback+0.090
- -0.012EPA / rush-0.040
- 9.1%Explosive rate9.3%
- 36.1%Third-down rate37.2%
- 56.5%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
- 1.69Points / drive1.81
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.024EPA / play allowed+0.004
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–7 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.4 points. SEA are 9-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 14/22 | 132 | 1 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 6/7 | 35 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 25 | 132 | 5.3 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 8 | 52 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 21/27 | 191 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 19 | 80 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.5%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.16
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.19
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.53