Closing spread
SEA -5.5
Total
41
Model margin
+0.5est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.032EPA / play+0.035
- 41.4%Success rate44.4%
- -0.047EPA / dropback+0.090
- -0.012EPA / rush-0.040
- 9.1%Explosive rate9.3%
- 36.1%Third-down rate37.2%
- 56.5%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
- 1.69Points / drive1.81
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.024EPA / play allowed+0.004
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–7 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.4 points. SEA are 9-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ATL–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 25 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 12:46 | 12 | 48 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| SEA | Q1 6:19 | 8 | 32 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| ATL | Q1 3:06 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–7 |
| SEA | Q1 0:49 | 3 | -10 | Punt | 7–7 |
| ATL | Q2 14:16 | 9 | 54 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| SEA | Q2 8:32 | 4 | 13 | Opp touchdown | 17–7 |
| SEA | Q2 6:56 | 7 | 66 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| ATL | Q2 3:25 | 6 | 36 | Punt | 17–14 |
| SEA | Q2 1:03 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 17–14 |
| ATL | Q2 0:11 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–14 |
| ATL | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 32 | Turnover | 17–14 |
| SEA | Q3 12:01 | 10 | 41 | Touchdown | 17–21 |
| ATL | Q3 7:35 | 4 | 44 | Missed field goal | 17–21 |
| SEA | Q3 4:59 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 17–21 |
| ATL | Q3 3:02 | 14 | 66 | Field goal | 20–21 |
| SEA | Q4 10:12 | 10 | 60 | Touchdown | 20–28 |
| ATL | Q4 4:28 | 16 | 74 | Touchdown | 26–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 14/22 | 132 | 1 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 6/7 | 35 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 25 | 132 | 5.3 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 8 | 52 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 21/27 | 191 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 19 | 80 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.5%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.16
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.19
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.53