Closing spread
JAX -2.5
Total
43
Model margin
+3.2est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
JAX lead 6–4 since 1999
Meetings average 44.9 points. OAK are 4-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 15/28 | 149 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 10 | 41 | 4.1 | 0 |
| LaBrandon Toefield | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.00%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.52
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.16
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.