Closing spread
JAX -2.5
Total
43
Model margin
+3.2est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
JAX lead 6–4 since 1999
Meetings average 44.9 points. OAK are 4-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 52 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| JAX | Q1 9:27 | 9 | 18 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 5:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–3 |
| JAX | Q1 3:24 | 16 | 67 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| LV | Q2 10:15 | 3 | 3 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| JAX | Q2 9:10 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LV | Q2 7:55 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| JAX | Q2 7:08 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LV | Q2 2:48 | 7 | 39 | Punt | 3–3 |
| JAX | Q2 0:29 | 1 | 5 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| LV | Q2 0:18 | 2 | 15 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| JAX | Q2 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–6 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 12 | Turnover | 3–6 |
| LV | Q3 12:49 | 4 | 2 | Punt | 3–6 |
| JAX | Q3 10:43 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 3–6 |
| LV | Q3 9:30 | 1 | -6 | Turnover | 3–6 |
| JAX | Q3 9:16 | 4 | 17 | Field goal | 6–6 |
| LV | Q3 7:10 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 6–6 |
| JAX | Q3 6:02 | 6 | 58 | Touchdown | 13–6 |
| LV | Q3 3:41 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 13–6 |
| JAX | Q3 2:41 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 13–6 |
| LV | Q3 1:03 | 4 | 26 | Punt | 13–6 |
| JAX | Q4 14:04 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 13–6 |
| LV | Q4 12:16 | 15 | 92 | Turnover | 13–6 |
| JAX | Q4 4:07 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 13–6 |
| LV | Q4 3:03 | 15 | 50 | Turnover on downs | 13–6 |
| JAX | Q4 0:08 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–6 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 15/28 | 149 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 10 | 41 | 4.1 | 0 |
| LaBrandon Toefield | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.00%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.52
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.16
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.