Closing spread
BAL -11
Total
33
Model margin
+1.1est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.173EPA / play-0.113
- 35.8%Success rate38.4%
- -0.181EPA / dropback-0.127
- -0.159EPA / rush-0.096
- 6.9%Explosive rate7.6%
- 34.6%Third-down rate35.0%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate51.3%
- 0.97Points / drive1.22
- 3.7%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.054EPA / play allowed-0.136
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 12–7 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. BAL are 13-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sage Rosenfels | 16/38 | 264 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Morris | 12 | 89 | 7.4 | 1 |
| Travis Minor | 8 | 8 | 1.0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 14/27 | 142 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 34 | 167 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Kyle Boller | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.1%
Expected total
41.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.76
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.18
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.14