Closing spread
BAL -11
Total
33
Model margin
+1.1est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.173EPA / play-0.113
- 35.8%Success rate38.4%
- -0.181EPA / dropback-0.127
- -0.159EPA / rush-0.096
- 6.9%Explosive rate7.6%
- 34.6%Third-down rate35.0%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate51.3%
- 0.97Points / drive1.22
- 3.7%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.054EPA / play allowed-0.136
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 12–7 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. BAL are 13-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–BAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | Q1 15:00 | 1 | 76 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| BAL | Q1 14:44 | 8 | 39 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| MIA | Q1 11:26 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–7 |
| BAL | Q1 10:18 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 7–7 |
| MIA | Q1 7:33 | 11 | 50 | Punt | 7–7 |
| BAL | Q1 2:12 | 7 | 14 | Punt | 7–7 |
| MIA | Q2 14:16 | 5 | 17 | Missed field goal | 7–7 |
| BAL | Q2 11:46 | 8 | 55 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| MIA | Q2 7:57 | 3 | -4 | Opp touchdown | 7–17 |
| MIA | Q2 7:08 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–17 |
| BAL | Q2 5:38 | 11 | 50 | Field goal | 7–20 |
| MIA | Q2 0:08 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 7–20 |
| BAL | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 32 | Punt | 7–20 |
| MIA | Q3 12:07 | 2 | 2 | Turnover | 7–26 |
| BAL | Q3 11:28 | 1 | 2 | Touchdown | 13–27 |
| MIA | Q3 11:24 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 14–27 |
| BAL | Q3 11:10 | 4 | 22 | Punt | 14–27 |
| MIA | Q3 8:52 | 9 | 90 | Touchdown | 21–27 |
| BAL | Q3 5:10 | 8 | 50 | Field goal | 21–30 |
| MIA | Q3 0:02 | 9 | 69 | Turnover | 23–30 |
| BAL | Q4 10:24 | 1 | -3 | Safety | 23–30 |
| MIA | Q4 10:13 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 23–30 |
| BAL | Q4 8:12 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 23–30 |
| MIA | Q4 6:46 | 8 | 14 | Punt | 23–30 |
| BAL | Q4 3:29 | 7 | 31 | Punt | 23–30 |
| MIA | Q4 0:42 | 3 | 16 | End of half | 23–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sage Rosenfels | 16/38 | 264 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Morris | 12 | 89 | 7.4 | 1 |
| Travis Minor | 8 | 8 | 1.0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 14/27 | 142 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 34 | 167 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Kyle Boller | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.1%
Expected total
41.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.76
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.18
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.14