2004 · Week 17

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Daunte Culpepper

18·21

Commanders

Washington

QB Patrick Ramsey

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

MIN -4

Total

41

Model margin

+1.9est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

2.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapCommanders
  • +0.162EPA / play-0.121
  • 50.0%Success rate38.9%
  • +0.287EPA / dropback-0.102
  • -0.097EPA / rush-0.145
  • 10.7%Explosive rate6.6%
  • 52.5%Third-down rate31.9%
  • 64.5%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
  • 2.26Points / drive1.03
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.5%
  • +0.107EPA / play allowed-0.104

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 9–4 since 1999

MIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. WAS are 5-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14WAS @ MIN0–31MIN
2022 · W9MIN @ WAS20–17MIN
2019 · W8WAS @ MIN9–19MIN
2017 · W10MIN @ WAS38–30MIN
2016 · W10MIN @ WAS20–26WAS
2014 · W9WAS @ MIN26–29MIN
2013 · W10WAS @ MIN27–34MIN
2012 · W6MIN @ WAS26–38WAS

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daunte Culpepper27/4429920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Daunte Culpepper22412.00
Michael Bennett8192.40
Onterrio Smith551.00
Moe Williams341.30

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Ramsey17/2621621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ladell Betts261184.51
Laveranues Coles166.00
Rock Cartwright200.00
Patrick Ramsey1-1-1.00
Taylor Jacobs1-6-6.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -44.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.34%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.3%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.45
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.16
  • Expected margin+1.95