2004 · Week 17

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Tommy Maddox

29·24

Bills

Buffalo

QB Drew Bledsoe

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · astroplay · 52°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

BUF -9.5

Total

33

Model margin

+7.0est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBills
  • +0.044EPA / play-0.073
  • 44.9%Success rate40.7%
  • +0.136EPA / dropback-0.012
  • -0.028EPA / rush-0.139
  • 10.4%Explosive rate8.2%
  • 44.9%Third-down rate35.8%
  • 56.0%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
  • 1.83Points / drive1.71
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.7%
  • -0.133EPA / play allowed-0.135

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 7–6 since 1999

BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38 points. BUF are 6-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13BUF @ PIT26–7BUF
2023 · playoffsPIT @ BUF17–31BUF
2022 · W5PIT @ BUF3–38BUF
2021 · W1PIT @ BUF23–16PIT
2020 · W14PIT @ BUF15–26BUF
2019 · W15BUF @ PIT17–10BUF
2016 · W14PIT @ BUF27–20PIT
2013 · W10BUF @ PIT10–23PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–BUF
PITQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
PITQ1 12:51616Field goal3–0
BUFQ1 10:443-7Punt3–0
PITQ1 9:1213Turnover3–0
BUFQ1 9:06550Touchdown3–7
PITQ1 6:14649Touchdown10–7
BUFQ1 3:2810Turnover10–7
PITQ1 3:15825Field goal13–7
BUFQ2 13:393-1Punt13–7
PITQ2 12:0010Turnover13–7
BUFQ2 11:4940Punt13–7
PITQ2 10:531469Field goal16–7
BUFQ2 4:2238Punt16–7
PITQ2 2:1032Punt16–7
BUFQ2 1:41838Field goal16–10
PITQ2 0:0300End of half16–10
BUFQ3 15:003-5Punt16–10
PITQ3 13:1632Opp touchdown16–17
PITQ3 12:316-5Punt16–17
BUFQ3 9:221288Missed field goal16–17
PITQ3 1:49461Field goal19–17
BUFQ4 14:493-2Opp touchdown26–17
BUFQ4 13:2439Punt26–17
PITQ4 11:161436Field goal29–17
BUFQ4 2:23589Touchdown29–24
PITQ4 1:1800End of half29–24

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tommy Maddox12/2412012
Brian St. Pierre0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willie Parker191025.40
Duce Staley8212.60
Tommy Maddox122.00
Brian St. Pierre4-3-0.80

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Bledsoe16/3018901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willis McGahee18794.42
Lee Evans11515.00
Shaud Williams122.00
Drew Bledsoe100.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.55.9%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

3.39%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.5%

Expected total

41.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.28
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.75
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.03