2004 · Week 17

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Tommy Maddox

29·24

Bills

Buffalo

QB Drew Bledsoe

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · astroplay · 52°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

BUF -9.5

Total

33

Model margin

+7.0est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBills
  • +0.044EPA / play-0.073
  • 44.9%Success rate40.7%
  • +0.136EPA / dropback-0.012
  • -0.028EPA / rush-0.139
  • 10.4%Explosive rate8.2%
  • 44.9%Third-down rate35.8%
  • 56.0%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
  • 1.83Points / drive1.71
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.7%
  • -0.133EPA / play allowed-0.135

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 7–6 since 1999

BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38 points. BUF are 6-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13BUF @ PIT26–7BUF
2023 · playoffsPIT @ BUF17–31BUF
2022 · W5PIT @ BUF3–38BUF
2021 · W1PIT @ BUF23–16PIT
2020 · W14PIT @ BUF15–26BUF
2019 · W15BUF @ PIT17–10BUF
2016 · W14PIT @ BUF27–20PIT
2013 · W10BUF @ PIT10–23PIT

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tommy Maddox12/2412012
Brian St. Pierre0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willie Parker191025.40
Duce Staley8212.60
Tommy Maddox122.00
Brian St. Pierre4-3-0.80

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Bledsoe16/3018901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willis McGahee18794.42
Lee Evans11515.00
Shaud Williams122.00
Drew Bledsoe100.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.55.9%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

3.39%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.5%

Expected total

41.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.28
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.75
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.03