Closing spread
PHI -8
Total
47
Model margin
+3.3est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.162EPA / play+0.072
- 50.0%Success rate44.4%
- +0.287EPA / dropback+0.143
- -0.097EPA / rush-0.060
- 10.7%Explosive rate10.1%
- 52.5%Third-down rate37.2%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 2.26Points / drive1.97
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.2%
- +0.107EPA / play allowed-0.027
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 10–4 since 1999
PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.5 points. PHI are 9-4-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–PHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 12:56 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 11:54 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 10:52 | 9 | 58 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q1 6:18 | 7 | 35 | Punt | 0–7 |
| PHI | Q1 3:13 | 7 | 92 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| MIN | Q2 14:16 | 6 | 58 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| PHI | Q2 10:37 | 4 | 10 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| MIN | Q2 10:08 | 12 | 58 | Turnover on downs | 7–21 |
| PHI | Q2 4:31 | 14 | 97 | End of half | 7–21 |
| PHI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–21 |
| MIN | Q3 13:59 | 12 | 42 | Turnover | 7–21 |
| PHI | Q3 8:20 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 7–21 |
| MIN | Q3 6:27 | 7 | 35 | Turnover | 7–21 |
| PHI | Q3 4:02 | 1 | 30 | Turnover | 7–21 |
| MIN | Q3 3:53 | 7 | 49 | Turnover on downs | 7–21 |
| PHI | Q3 0:44 | 6 | 20 | Field goal | 7–24 |
| MIN | Q4 13:20 | 3 | 13 | Punt | 7–24 |
| PHI | Q4 12:15 | 9 | 55 | Field goal | 7–27 |
| MIN | Q4 6:39 | 13 | 90 | Touchdown | 14–27 |
| PHI | Q4 1:59 | 3 | 13 | End of half | 14–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 24/46 | 316 | 1 | 2 |
| Gus Frerotte | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bennett | 8 | 37 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Onterrio Smith | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Mewelde Moore | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 21/33 | 286 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 12 | 70 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 10 | 36 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.21
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.33