Closing spread
ATL -6.5
Total
49
Model margin
+2.7est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 10–8 since 1999
Meetings average 51.4 points. ATL are 9-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 76 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 12:00 | 5 | 81 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| ATL | Q1 9:14 | 5 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| LA | Q1 7:52 | 9 | 34 | Punt | 7–14 |
| ATL | Q1 3:16 | 14 | 90 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| LA | Q2 9:58 | 8 | 75 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| ATL | Q2 5:26 | 6 | 51 | Turnover | 14–21 |
| LA | Q2 2:19 | 3 | 9 | Opp touchdown | 14–28 |
| LA | Q2 0:59 | 8 | 49 | Field goal | 17–28 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 17–28 |
| ATL | Q3 13:20 | 6 | 32 | Touchdown | 17–35 |
| LA | Q3 10:05 | 4 | -5 | Punt | 17–35 |
| ATL | Q3 7:56 | 3 | -7 | Field goal | 17–38 |
| LA | Q3 5:54 | 3 | 18 | Turnover | 17–38 |
| ATL | Q3 4:49 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 17–38 |
| LA | Q3 2:31 | 5 | 9 | Turnover | 17–38 |
| ATL | Q4 14:52 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 17–38 |
| LA | Q4 12:24 | 2 | -5 | Safety | 17–40 |
| ATL | Q4 11:39 | 15 | 68 | Touchdown | 17–47 |
| LA | Q4 1:54 | 7 | 67 | End of half | 17–47 |
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 12/16 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 1/1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 17 | 142 | 8.4 | 2 |
| Mike Vick | 8 | 119 | 14.9 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 15 | 66 | 4.4 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
4.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.4%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.31
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+2.74
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.