Closing spread
ATL -6.5
Total
49
Model margin
+2.7est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 10–8 since 1999
Meetings average 51.4 points. ATL are 9-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 12/16 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 1/1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 17 | 142 | 8.4 | 2 |
| Mike Vick | 8 | 119 | 14.9 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 15 | 66 | 4.4 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
4.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.4%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.31
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+2.74
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.