Closing spread
PHI -6
Total
37
Model margin
+3.6est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.032EPA / play+0.072
- 41.4%Success rate44.4%
- -0.047EPA / dropback+0.143
- -0.012EPA / rush-0.060
- 9.1%Explosive rate10.1%
- 36.1%Third-down rate37.2%
- 56.5%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 1.69Points / drive1.97
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.024EPA / play allowed-0.027
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. PHI are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 11/24 | 136 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 15 | 59 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 17/26 | 180 | 2 | 0 |
| Koy Detmer | 1/1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 16 | 96 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Greg Lewis | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
3.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.10
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.59