Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
38
Model margin
+1.6est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.001EPA / play-0.125
- 42.8%Success rate38.9%
- +0.071EPA / dropback-0.137
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.112
- 9.4%Explosive rate7.6%
- +1.55CPOE-1.62
- 40.0%Third-down rate33.2%
- 49.6%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
- 1.46Points / drive1.13
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46 points. BUF are 9-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 35 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 9:22 | 5 | 31 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q1 6:17 | 9 | 66 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| BUF | Q1 0:33 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–7 |
| DEN | Q2 14:07 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 3–7 |
| BUF | Q2 11:53 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–7 |
| DEN | Q2 10:54 | 8 | 37 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| BUF | Q2 7:51 | 10 | 28 | Missed field goal | 6–7 |
| DEN | Q2 1:11 | 4 | 43 | Turnover | 6–7 |
| BUF | Q2 0:27 | 4 | 21 | Turnover | 6–7 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 48 | Missed field goal | 6–7 |
| BUF | Q3 11:42 | 9 | 66 | Touchdown | 6–14 |
| DEN | Q3 6:24 | 10 | 81 | Touchdown | 12–14 |
| BUF | Q3 0:54 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 12–14 |
| DEN | Q4 14:14 | 5 | 26 | Punt | 12–14 |
| BUF | Q4 11:54 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 12–14 |
| DEN | Q4 8:33 | 8 | 50 | Missed field goal | 12–14 |
| BUF | Q4 3:32 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 12–14 |
| DEN | Q4 2:13 | 11 | 63 | Field goal | 15–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 23/39 | 304 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 23 | 139 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Cecil Sapp | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Selvin Young | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Losman | 14/21 | 97 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 19 | 90 | 4.7 | 1 |
| J.P. Losman | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Josh Reed | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
| Roscoe Parrish | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.54
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.57
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.59