Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
38
Model margin
+1.6est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.001EPA / play-0.125
- 42.8%Success rate38.9%
- +0.071EPA / dropback-0.137
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.112
- 9.4%Explosive rate7.6%
- +1.55CPOE-1.62
- 40.0%Third-down rate33.2%
- 49.6%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
- 1.46Points / drive1.13
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46 points. BUF are 9-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 23/39 | 304 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 23 | 139 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Cecil Sapp | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Selvin Young | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Losman | 14/21 | 97 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 19 | 90 | 4.7 | 1 |
| J.P. Losman | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Josh Reed | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
| Roscoe Parrish | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.54
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.57
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.59