Closing spread
NE -6
Total
41.5
Model margin
-2.3est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.256EPA / play-0.075
- 53.7%Success rate41.4%
- +0.422EPA / dropback-0.065
- +0.001EPA / rush-0.088
- 8.7%Explosive rate7.7%
- +7.39CPOE+0.41
- 48.4%Third-down rate37.1%
- 73.2%Red-zone TD rate41.2%
- 3.13Points / drive1.32
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 22-32-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 22/28 | 297 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurence Maroney | 20 | 72 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 11 | 54 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Matt Gutierrez | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 16/21 | 167 | 2 | 0 |
| Kellen Clemens | 5/10 | 35 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 14 | 42 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
3.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.0%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.81
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.25