Closing spread
NE -6
Total
41.5
Model margin
-2.3est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.256EPA / play-0.075
- 53.7%Success rate41.4%
- +0.422EPA / dropback-0.065
- +0.001EPA / rush-0.088
- 8.7%Explosive rate7.7%
- +7.39CPOE+0.41
- 48.4%Third-down rate37.1%
- 73.2%Red-zone TD rate41.2%
- 3.13Points / drive1.32
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 43–14 since 1999
NE have won 4 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 23-32-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–NYJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 34 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 10:51 | 12 | 91 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 5:12 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NE | Q1 2:52 | 4 | 27 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 0:44 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NE | Q2 15:00 | 10 | 33 | Turnover on downs | 7–0 |
| NYJ | Q2 10:37 | 11 | 61 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| NE | Q2 4:15 | 9 | 73 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| NYJ | Q2 1:07 | 3 | 4 | End of half | 20–7 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 21–7 |
| NYJ | Q3 14:46 | 10 | 34 | Punt | 21–7 |
| NE | Q3 9:49 | 5 | 85 | Touchdown | 28–7 |
| NYJ | Q3 7:01 | 9 | 69 | Touchdown | 28–14 |
| NE | Q3 2:19 | 17 | 85 | Field goal | 31–14 |
| NYJ | Q4 6:51 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 31–14 |
| NE | Q4 6:02 | 8 | 38 | Touchdown | 38–14 |
| NYJ | Q4 1:58 | 7 | 19 | Turnover on downs | 38–14 |
| NE | Q4 0:17 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 38–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 22/28 | 297 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurence Maroney | 20 | 72 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 11 | 54 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Matt Gutierrez | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 16/21 | 167 | 2 | 0 |
| Kellen Clemens | 5/10 | 35 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 14 | 42 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
3.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.0%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.81
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.25