Closing spread
NE -3.5
Total
46
Model margin
+6.5est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NE lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. NE are 11-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 25/31 | 279 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurence Maroney | 15 | 77 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 10 | 51 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Wes Welker | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Matt Gutierrez | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.1%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.92
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.48
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.