Closing spread
IND -6.5
Total
46
Model margin
-1.3est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.139EPA / play-0.015
- 48.8%Success rate45.4%
- +0.222EPA / dropback+0.012
- +0.025EPA / rush-0.052
- 9.7%Explosive rate7.5%
- +1.87CPOE+3.67
- 49.3%Third-down rate44.5%
- 60.0%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
- 2.49Points / drive1.85
- 1.8%Turnover rate3.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15–1 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. HOU are 19-28-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–HOU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| IND | Q1 14:39 | 15 | 79 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| HOU | Q1 6:06 | 12 | 54 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| IND | Q2 14:18 | 11 | 65 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| HOU | Q2 8:46 | 11 | 44 | Punt | 14–10 |
| IND | Q2 2:49 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 14–10 |
| HOU | Q2 1:56 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 14–10 |
| IND | Q2 0:28 | 1 | 3 | End of half | 14–10 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 66 | Field goal | 17–10 |
| HOU | Q3 10:32 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 17–10 |
| IND | Q3 10:13 | 4 | 21 | Touchdown | 24–10 |
| HOU | Q3 8:38 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 24–10 |
| IND | Q3 6:14 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 24–10 |
| HOU | Q3 5:09 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 24–10 |
| IND | Q3 4:54 | 4 | 62 | Field goal | 27–10 |
| HOU | Q3 2:41 | 7 | 73 | Touchdown | 27–17 |
| IND | Q4 14:21 | 6 | 34 | Field goal | 30–17 |
| HOU | Q4 10:40 | 14 | 75 | Touchdown | 30–24 |
| IND | Q4 2:49 | 5 | 27 | Punt | 30–24 |
| HOU | Q4 0:19 | 1 | -12 | End of half | 30–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 20/29 | 273 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 22 | 72 | 3.3 | 2 |
| Kenton Keith | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 27/33 | 236 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameel Cook | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Samkon Gado | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Ahman Green | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
3.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.5%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.88
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.32