Closing spread
DEN -3.5
Total
36
Model margin
-0.3est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.108EPA / play-0.001
- 44.1%Success rate42.8%
- +0.191EPA / dropback+0.071
- +0.015EPA / rush-0.100
- 10.4%Explosive rate9.4%
- +2.15CPOE+1.55
- 47.2%Third-down rate40.0%
- 66.6%Red-zone TD rate49.6%
- 2.25Points / drive1.46
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 38.8 points. DEN are 6-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 11:51 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 9:53 | 19 | 90 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| DEN | Q2 13:09 | 12 | 100 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| JAX | Q2 6:40 | 9 | 52 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| DEN | Q2 1:56 | 2 | 21 | Turnover | 14–7 |
| JAX | Q2 1:26 | 6 | 41 | Field goal | 17–7 |
| DEN | Q2 0:08 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–7 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 17–7 |
| JAX | Q3 14:56 | 3 | 9 | Field goal | 20–7 |
| DEN | Q3 13:11 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 20–7 |
| JAX | Q3 10:57 | 7 | 25 | Turnover | 20–7 |
| DEN | Q3 7:31 | 7 | 41 | Turnover on downs | 20–7 |
| JAX | Q3 3:44 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 20–7 |
| DEN | Q3 1:22 | 9 | 60 | Touchdown | 20–14 |
| JAX | Q4 12:41 | 11 | 78 | Turnover | 20–14 |
| DEN | Q4 6:09 | 4 | 5 | Turnover on downs | 20–14 |
| JAX | Q4 4:12 | 3 | 7 | Field goal | 23–14 |
| DEN | Q4 2:10 | 3 | 20 | Turnover | 23–14 |
| JAX | Q4 1:40 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 23–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 14/20 | 154 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 17 | 84 | 4.9 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 12 | 52 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 15 | 37 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 16/23 | 222 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 11 | 35 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Cecil Sapp | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Selvin Young | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Javon Walker | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
| Mike Bell | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.3%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.85
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.29