Closing spread
BAL -3.5
Total
40
Model margin
+5.1est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.108EPA / play-0.013
- 40.5%Success rate42.4%
- -0.090EPA / dropback+0.032
- -0.133EPA / rush-0.076
- 6.5%Explosive rate10.4%
- +1.46CPOE-2.23
- 37.9%Third-down rate42.7%
- 50.1%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 1.35Points / drive1.84
- 3.2%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 40.2 points. CLE are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BAL–CLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 50 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| BAL | Q1 9:46 | 8 | 43 | Turnover | 0–13 |
| CLE | Q1 5:55 | 1 | 78 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| BAL | Q1 5:46 | 7 | 51 | Missed field goal | 0–14 |
| CLE | Q1 1:43 | 3 | 7 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| BAL | Q1 0:12 | 5 | 21 | Field goal | 3–14 |
| CLE | Q2 12:45 | 7 | 49 | Field goal | 3–17 |
| BAL | Q2 9:17 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 3–17 |
| CLE | Q2 9:10 | 9 | 31 | Touchdown | 3–24 |
| BAL | Q2 4:52 | 11 | 53 | Field goal | 6–24 |
| CLE | Q2 0:52 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 6–24 |
| BAL | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 67 | Missed field goal | 6–24 |
| CLE | Q3 8:49 | 9 | 65 | Field goal | 6–27 |
| BAL | Q3 4:12 | 9 | 35 | Turnover on downs | 6–27 |
| CLE | Q3 0:04 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 6–27 |
| BAL | Q4 13:41 | 13 | 85 | Touchdown | 13–27 |
| CLE | Q4 7:14 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 13–27 |
| BAL | Q4 5:30 | 11 | 52 | Turnover on downs | 13–27 |
| CLE | Q4 2:38 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 13–27 |
| BAL | Q4 0:23 | 1 | 11 | End of half | 13–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 34/53 | 307 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 14 | 104 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Musa Smith | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 10/18 | 204 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 23 | 64 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Jason Wright | 2 | 27 | 13.5 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
6.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.7%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.99
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.58
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.14