Closing spread
IND -10
Total
46
Model margin
+5.3est.
IND perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.001EPA / play+0.139
- 42.8%Success rate48.8%
- +0.071EPA / dropback+0.222
- -0.100EPA / rush+0.025
- 9.4%Explosive rate9.7%
- +1.55CPOE+1.87
- 40.0%Third-down rate49.3%
- 49.6%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 1.46Points / drive2.49
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 14–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.3 points. IND are 14-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 47 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| IND | Q1 11:32 | 7 | 31 | Punt | 3–0 |
| DEN | Q1 7:47 | 10 | 86 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| IND | Q1 2:19 | 7 | 46 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| DEN | Q2 14:23 | 11 | 76 | Field goal | 13–7 |
| IND | Q2 8:29 | 9 | 61 | Touchdown | 13–14 |
| DEN | Q2 3:49 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 13–14 |
| IND | Q2 1:49 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 13–14 |
| DEN | Q2 0:49 | 2 | 11 | End of half | 13–14 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 73 | Touchdown | 13–21 |
| DEN | Q3 11:46 | 2 | 3 | Turnover | 13–21 |
| IND | Q3 10:58 | 5 | 19 | Touchdown | 13–28 |
| DEN | Q3 8:55 | 15 | 79 | Touchdown | 20–28 |
| IND | Q3 1:10 | 11 | 93 | Touchdown | 20–35 |
| DEN | Q4 10:56 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 20–35 |
| IND | Q4 8:33 | 12 | 76 | Field goal | 20–38 |
| DEN | Q4 2:34 | 4 | 28 | Turnover | 20–38 |
| IND | Q4 1:57 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–38 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 13/21 | 131 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 26 | 131 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Selvin Young | 8 | 81 | 10.1 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 1 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 20/27 | 193 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 19 | 136 | 7.2 | 1 |
| Kenton Keith | 10 | 80 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
3.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.1%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.71
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.28