Closing spread
HOU -4.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.078EPA / play-0.015
- 40.4%Success rate45.4%
- -0.084EPA / dropback+0.012
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.052
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.5%
- -3.12CPOE+3.67
- 37.0%Third-down rate44.5%
- 48.1%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
- 1.36Points / drive1.85
- 2.8%Turnover rate3.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 9–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. HOU are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleo Lemon | 15/27 | 151 | 0 | 1 |
| Trent Green | 1/2 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 23 | 114 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Trent Green | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 20/34 | 294 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Dayne | 16 | 40 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Samkon Gado | 8 | 19 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.6%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.97
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.35
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.19