2007 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

17·37

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB David Garrard

Jacksonville Municipal Stadium · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

JAX -6.5

Total

37

Model margin

+6.6est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapJaguars
  • -0.015EPA / play+0.108
  • 45.4%Success rate44.1%
  • +0.012EPA / dropback+0.191
  • -0.052EPA / rush+0.015
  • 7.5%Explosive rate10.4%
  • +3.67CPOE+2.15
  • 44.5%Third-down rate47.2%
  • 65.4%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
  • 1.85Points / drive2.25
  • 3.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 33–16 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. JAX are 20-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6HOU @ JAX34–31HOU
2025 · W10JAX @ HOU29–36HOU
2025 · W3HOU @ JAX10–17JAX
2024 · W13HOU @ JAX23–20HOU
2024 · W4JAX @ HOU20–24HOU
2023 · W12JAX @ HOU24–21JAX
2023 · W3HOU @ JAX37–17HOU
2022 · W17JAX @ HOU31–3JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–JAX
HOUQ1 15:00978Field goal3–0
JAXQ1 10:24573Missed field goal3–0
JAXQ1 7:3200Missed field goal3–0
HOUQ1 7:27435Turnover3–0
HOUQ1 5:11332Turnover3–0
JAXQ1 4:2668Turnover3–0
HOUQ1 2:023-11Punt3–0
JAXQ1 0:03743Turnover3–0
HOUQ2 11:50523Field goal6–0
JAXQ2 9:381469Touchdown6–7
HOUQ2 3:5100Field goal6–7
JAXQ2 3:50641Field goal6–10
HOUQ2 0:5930End of half6–10
JAXQ3 15:001578Touchdown6–16
HOUQ3 8:1739Punt6–16
HOUQ3 6:32944Field goal9–16
JAXQ3 1:40973Touchdown9–23
HOUQ4 13:111052Opp touchdown9–30
HOUQ4 8:55539Turnover9–30
JAXQ4 7:14373Touchdown9–37
HOUQ4 5:481589Touchdown17–37
JAXQ4 0:2900End of half17–37
JAXQ4 0:2900End of half17–37
JAXQ4 0:0000End of half17–37

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub19/3125901
Sage Rosenfels11/128210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahman Green16442.80
Samkon Gado4153.80
Matt Schaub263.00
Sage Rosenfels111.00
Kevin Walter1-5-5.00

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Garrard22/3422120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew1212510.42
Fred Taylor69015.00
David Garrard5265.20
Quinn Gray1-1-1.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.2%6.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

4.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.4%

Expected total

46.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.02
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.58