Closing spread
JAX -6.5
Total
37
Model margin
+6.6est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.015EPA / play+0.108
- 45.4%Success rate44.1%
- +0.012EPA / dropback+0.191
- -0.052EPA / rush+0.015
- 7.5%Explosive rate10.4%
- +3.67CPOE+2.15
- 44.5%Third-down rate47.2%
- 65.4%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
- 1.85Points / drive2.25
- 3.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 32–16 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. JAX are 20-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 19/31 | 259 | 0 | 1 |
| Sage Rosenfels | 11/12 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 16 | 44 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Samkon Gado | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Sage Rosenfels | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 22/34 | 221 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 12 | 125 | 10.4 | 2 |
| Fred Taylor | 6 | 90 | 15.0 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Quinn Gray | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
4.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.4%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.02
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.58