Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
33.5
Model margin
+2.9est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.108EPA / play-0.125
- 40.5%Success rate38.9%
- -0.090EPA / dropback-0.137
- -0.133EPA / rush-0.112
- 6.5%Explosive rate7.6%
- +1.46CPOE-1.62
- 37.9%Third-down rate33.2%
- 50.1%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
- 1.35Points / drive1.13
- 3.2%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41 points. BUF are 6-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 21/36 | 191 | 1 | 0 |
| Mark Clayton | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 19 | 114 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Kyle Boller | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Musa Smith | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Edwards | 11/21 | 153 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 27 | 84 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Dwayne Wright | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
6.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.18
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+2.86