Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
33.5
Model margin
+2.9est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.108EPA / play-0.125
- 40.5%Success rate38.9%
- -0.090EPA / dropback-0.137
- -0.133EPA / rush-0.112
- 6.5%Explosive rate7.6%
- +1.46CPOE-1.62
- 37.9%Third-down rate33.2%
- 50.1%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
- 1.35Points / drive1.13
- 3.2%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 8–7 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.3 points. BUF are 7-7-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BAL–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 4 | -6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 13:46 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 11:49 | 13 | 75 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| BAL | Q1 3:51 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–3 |
| BUF | Q1 2:06 | 8 | 13 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| BAL | Q2 12:44 | 2 | 11 | Turnover | 0–6 |
| BUF | Q2 11:52 | 3 | 6 | Field goal | 0–9 |
| BAL | Q2 10:18 | 9 | 46 | Punt | 0–9 |
| BUF | Q2 5:50 | 4 | 2 | Punt | 0–9 |
| BAL | Q2 3:34 | 8 | 50 | Punt | 0–9 |
| BUF | Q2 0:54 | 3 | 17 | End of half | 0–9 |
| BAL | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 90 | Touchdown | 7–9 |
| BUF | Q3 11:20 | 8 | 51 | Field goal | 7–12 |
| BAL | Q3 7:18 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 7–12 |
| BUF | Q3 5:11 | 6 | 68 | Touchdown | 7–19 |
| BAL | Q3 2:14 | 16 | 72 | Turnover on downs | 7–19 |
| BUF | Q4 9:00 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 7–19 |
| BAL | Q4 7:30 | 4 | 14 | Touchdown | 14–19 |
| BUF | Q4 6:34 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–19 |
| BAL | Q4 4:50 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 14–19 |
| BUF | Q4 3:14 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–19 |
| BAL | Q4 2:04 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 14–19 |
| BUF | Q4 1:45 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 14–19 |
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 21/36 | 191 | 1 | 0 |
| Mark Clayton | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 19 | 114 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Kyle Boller | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Musa Smith | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Edwards | 11/21 | 153 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 27 | 84 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Dwayne Wright | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
6.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.18
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+2.86