Closing spread
IND -3
Total
45
Model margin
+2.1est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
7.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.139EPA / play+0.108
- 48.8%Success rate44.1%
- +0.222EPA / dropback+0.191
- +0.025EPA / rush+0.015
- 9.7%Explosive rate10.4%
- +1.87CPOE+2.15
- 49.3%Third-down rate47.2%
- 60.0%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
- 2.49Points / drive2.25
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–22 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. JAX are 31-17-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 23/37 | 259 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 16 | 85 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Kenton Keith | 15 | 56 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 8/12 | 72 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinn Gray | 9/24 | 56 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 11 | 55 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 13 | 52 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Quinn Gray | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
7.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.8%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.14
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+2.14