Closing spread
IND -3
Total
45
Model margin
+2.1est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
7.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.139EPA / play+0.108
- 48.8%Success rate44.1%
- +0.222EPA / dropback+0.191
- +0.025EPA / rush+0.015
- 9.7%Explosive rate10.4%
- +1.87CPOE+2.15
- 49.3%Third-down rate47.2%
- 60.0%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
- 2.49Points / drive2.25
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–23 since 1999
JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.4 points. JAX are 32-17-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 32 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 12:14 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 10:41 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 9:12 | 7 | 41 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 5:33 | 12 | 76 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q1 0:27 | 9 | 26 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| IND | Q2 10:51 | 11 | 81 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| JAX | Q2 5:25 | 5 | 25 | Turnover on downs | 14–0 |
| IND | Q2 2:49 | 10 | 20 | Field goal | 17–0 |
| JAX | Q2 0:29 | 1 | 5 | End of half | 17–0 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 37 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| IND | Q3 9:23 | 7 | 25 | Punt | 17–7 |
| JAX | Q3 4:45 | 2 | -4 | Safety | 19–7 |
| IND | Q3 4:35 | 12 | 55 | Field goal | 22–7 |
| JAX | Q4 13:34 | 6 | 27 | Turnover | 22–7 |
| IND | Q4 10:48 | 7 | 34 | Turnover | 22–7 |
| JAX | Q4 6:09 | 6 | 12 | Turnover on downs | 22–7 |
| IND | Q4 5:04 | 4 | 54 | Touchdown | 29–7 |
| JAX | Q4 3:58 | 17 | 45 | Turnover | 29–7 |
| IND | Q4 0:36 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 29–7 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 23/37 | 259 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 16 | 85 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Kenton Keith | 15 | 56 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 8/12 | 72 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinn Gray | 9/24 | 56 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 11 | 55 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 13 | 52 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Quinn Gray | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
7.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.8%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.14
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+2.14