2007 · Week 7
Final
Ford Field · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
DET -2.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
-1.0est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.004EPA / play-0.065
- 41.9%Success rate42.9%
- +0.063EPA / dropback-0.034
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.134
- 8.8%Explosive rate8.6%
- +2.62CPOE+1.53
- 39.3%Third-down rate32.3%
- 53.0%Red-zone TD rate54.4%
- 1.64Points / drive1.58
- 1.8%Turnover rate3.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 11–10 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. DET are 14-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–DET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 31 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 12:25 | 5 | 21 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| TB | Q1 9:53 | 8 | 43 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| DET | Q1 4:52 | 5 | 49 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| TB | Q1 2:51 | 10 | 96 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| DET | Q2 12:48 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–10 |
| TB | Q2 11:01 | 15 | 78 | Missed field goal | 7–10 |
| DET | Q2 2:00 | 8 | 51 | Field goal | 7–13 |
| TB | Q2 0:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–13 |
| DET | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -10 | Punt | 7–13 |
| TB | Q3 13:47 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 7–13 |
| DET | Q3 12:30 | 12 | 71 | Field goal | 7–16 |
| TB | Q3 4:13 | 15 | 84 | Turnover | 7–16 |
| DET | Q4 11:49 | 9 | 93 | Touchdown | 7–23 |
| TB | Q4 6:28 | 17 | 65 | Touchdown | 13–23 |
| DET | Q4 2:03 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 13–23 |
| TB | Q4 1:59 | 4 | 29 | Field goal | 16–23 |
| DET | Q4 1:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 16–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 37/45 | 316 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnest Graham | 19 | 92 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Zack Crockett | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 16/20 | 147 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jones | 15 | 76 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Calvin Johnson | 1 | 32 | 32.0 | 1 |
| T.J. Duckett | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.4%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.13
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-1.00