Closing spread
BUF -1
Total
41
Model margin
+1.9est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.125EPA / play-0.078
- 38.9%Success rate40.4%
- -0.137EPA / dropback-0.084
- -0.112EPA / rush-0.069
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.3%
- -1.62CPOE-3.12
- 33.2%Third-down rate37.0%
- 50.7%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
- 1.13Points / drive1.36
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Losman | 12/23 | 157 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 19 | 61 | 3.2 | 1 |
| J.P. Losman | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Dwayne Wright | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleo Lemon | 16/29 | 131 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Chatman | 27 | 124 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Cleo Lemon | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Patrick Cobbs | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.60
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.57
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.95