Closing spread
CLE -1
Total
43.5
Model margin
+0.6est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.013EPA / play-0.108
- 42.4%Success rate40.5%
- +0.032EPA / dropback-0.090
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.133
- 10.4%Explosive rate6.5%
- -2.23CPOE+1.46
- 42.7%Third-down rate37.9%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate50.1%
- 1.84Points / drive1.35
- 2.7%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. BAL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 24/38 | 274 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 22 | 92 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Jason Wright | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Wright | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 22/41 | 279 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 21 | 102 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Kyle Boller | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Musa Smith | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.6%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.99
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.57