2007 · Week 11 · Division

Final / OT

Browns

Cleveland

QB Derek Anderson

33·30

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Kyle Boller

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 53°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

CLE -1

Total

43.5

Model margin

+0.6est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapRavens
  • -0.013EPA / play-0.108
  • 42.4%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.032EPA / dropback-0.090
  • -0.076EPA / rush-0.133
  • 10.4%Explosive rate6.5%
  • -2.23CPOE+1.46
  • 42.7%Third-down rate37.9%
  • 61.0%Red-zone TD rate50.1%
  • 1.84Points / drive1.35
  • 2.7%Turnover rate3.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 39–16 since 1999

Meetings average 40.2 points. BAL are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6BAL @ CLE10–13CLE
2025 · W11BAL @ CLE23–16BAL
2025 · W2CLE @ BAL17–41BAL
2024 · W18CLE @ BAL10–35BAL
2024 · W8BAL @ CLE24–29CLE
2023 · W10CLE @ BAL33–31CLE
2023 · W4BAL @ CLE28–3BAL
2022 · W15BAL @ CLE3–13CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–BAL
CLEQ1 15:00519Turnover0–0
BALQ1 13:0535Punt0–0
CLEQ1 11:4630Punt0–0
CLEQ1 10:1639Missed field goal0–0
BALQ1 8:2721Turnover0–0
CLEQ1 7:45530Punt0–0
BALQ1 5:363-6Turnover0–0
CLEQ1 4:47513Field goal3–0
BALQ1 2:3435Punt3–0
CLEQ1 0:19680Touchdown10–0
BALQ2 12:2332Punt10–0
CLEQ2 10:163-1Opp touchdown10–7
CLEQ2 8:4700Field goal10–7
CLEQ2 8:40214Field goal10–7
CLEQ2 7:151268Field goal13–7
BALQ2 1:41831Turnover on downs13–7
CLEQ2 0:2400End of half13–7
BALQ3 15:00875Touchdown13–14
CLEQ3 10:42424Punt13–14
BALQ3 8:0031Punt13–14
CLEQ3 7:00411Touchdown20–14
BALQ3 6:01546Opp touchdown27–14
BALQ3 3:421433Field goal27–17
CLEQ4 12:1369Turnover on downs27–17
BALQ4 9:48843Field goal27–20
CLEQ4 7:20418Punt27–20
BALQ4 5:12483Touchdown27–27
CLEQ4 3:31415Punt27–27
BALQ4 1:49949Field goal27–30
CLEQ4 0:26224Field goal30–30
CLEOT848Field goal33–30

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Anderson24/3827401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis22924.21
Jason Wright4194.80
Josh Cribbs133.00
Derek Anderson320.71

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jason Wright1110

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Boller22/4127912

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willis McGahee211024.91
Kyle Boller2199.50
Musa Smith177.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.6%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.99
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.57