2007 · Week 11 · Division
Final
Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
TB -3
Total
35.5
Model margin
-3.2est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.004EPA / play-0.148
- 41.9%Success rate37.3%
- +0.063EPA / dropback-0.138
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.167
- 8.8%Explosive rate7.5%
- +2.62CPOE-3.93
- 39.3%Third-down rate36.4%
- 53.0%Red-zone TD rate48.0%
- 1.64Points / drive1.07
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 25–25 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. ATL are 21-27-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 10/20 | 159 | 2 | 0 |
| Bruce Gradkowski | 1/1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnest Graham | 17 | 102 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Michael Pittman | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Bruce Gradkowski | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 16/20 | 139 | 1 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 15/28 | 106 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 15 | 32 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Jerious Norwood | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.5%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.69
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.53
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-3.21