Closing spread
JAX -9.5
Total
37
Model margin
+6.4est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.125EPA / play+0.108
- 38.9%Success rate44.1%
- -0.137EPA / dropback+0.191
- -0.112EPA / rush+0.015
- 7.6%Explosive rate10.4%
- -1.62CPOE+2.15
- 33.2%Third-down rate47.2%
- 50.7%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
- 1.13Points / drive2.25
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 10–8 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. JAX are 7-11 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 12:58 | 7 | 81 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| BUF | Q1 9:40 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q1 6:25 | 10 | 34 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| BUF | Q1 1:21 | 4 | 11 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| JAX | Q2 14:16 | 6 | 12 | Field goal | 0–13 |
| BUF | Q2 10:56 | 10 | 67 | Touchdown | 7–13 |
| JAX | Q2 6:03 | 7 | 20 | Turnover on downs | 7–13 |
| BUF | Q2 3:12 | 3 | 8 | Turnover | 7–13 |
| JAX | Q2 1:56 | 7 | 51 | Field goal | 7–16 |
| BUF | Q2 0:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–16 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 13 | 75 | Field goal | 7–19 |
| BUF | Q3 8:06 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–19 |
| BUF | Q3 5:50 | 8 | 45 | Touchdown | 14–19 |
| JAX | Q3 1:29 | 7 | 53 | Field goal | 14–22 |
| BUF | Q4 14:10 | 10 | 55 | Turnover | 14–22 |
| JAX | Q4 7:50 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 14–22 |
| BUF | Q4 6:41 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 14–22 |
| JAX | Q4 5:02 | 4 | 73 | Touchdown | 14–29 |
| BUF | Q4 2:39 | 5 | 7 | Turnover on downs | 14–35 |
| JAX | Q4 1:48 | 1 | 17 | Touchdown | 14–36 |
| BUF | Q4 1:43 | 10 | 70 | End of half | 14–36 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Losman | 27/40 | 211 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 15 | 46 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Roscoe Parrish | 1 | 24 | 24.0 | 1 |
| Fred Jackson | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| J.P. Losman | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 23/37 | 296 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 14 | 104 | 7.4 | 1 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 10 | 10 | 1.0 | 1 |
| David Garrard | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
3.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.9%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.39
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.57
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.39