Closing spread
JAX -9.5
Total
37
Model margin
+6.4est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.125EPA / play+0.108
- 38.9%Success rate44.1%
- -0.137EPA / dropback+0.191
- -0.112EPA / rush+0.015
- 7.6%Explosive rate10.4%
- -1.62CPOE+2.15
- 33.2%Third-down rate47.2%
- 50.7%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
- 1.13Points / drive2.25
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 10–8 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. JAX are 7-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Losman | 27/40 | 211 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 15 | 46 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Roscoe Parrish | 1 | 24 | 24.0 | 1 |
| Fred Jackson | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| J.P. Losman | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 23/37 | 296 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 14 | 104 | 7.4 | 1 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 10 | 10 | 1.0 | 1 |
| David Garrard | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
3.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.9%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.39
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.57
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.39