Closing spread
CLE -3
Total
52
Model margin
+4.4est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.015EPA / play-0.013
- 45.4%Success rate42.4%
- +0.012EPA / dropback+0.032
- -0.052EPA / rush-0.076
- 7.5%Explosive rate10.4%
- +3.67CPOE-2.23
- 44.5%Third-down rate42.7%
- 65.4%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 1.85Points / drive1.84
- 3.7%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 39.9 points. CLE are 5-10 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | HOU–CLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 39 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| CLE | Q1 11:13 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 9:05 | 3 | 14 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CLE | Q1 7:09 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 5:00 | 6 | 61 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| CLE | Q1 2:23 | 6 | 25 | Punt | 7–0 |
| HOU | Q1 0:21 | 6 | 27 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| CLE | Q2 12:34 | 6 | 70 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| HOU | Q2 9:55 | 6 | 37 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| CLE | Q2 7:09 | 4 | 11 | Turnover | 10–7 |
| HOU | Q2 5:17 | 3 | 6 | Missed field goal | 10–7 |
| CLE | Q2 3:53 | 12 | 69 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| HOU | Q2 0:16 | 2 | 24 | End of half | 10–14 |
| CLE | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–14 |
| HOU | Q3 13:49 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–14 |
| CLE | Q3 12:55 | 9 | 64 | Field goal | 10–17 |
| HOU | Q3 7:24 | 4 | 25 | Turnover | 10–17 |
| CLE | Q3 5:45 | 4 | 26 | Punt | 10–17 |
| HOU | Q3 3:01 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–17 |
| CLE | Q3 0:38 | 6 | 26 | Punt | 10–17 |
| HOU | Q4 12:10 | 4 | 0 | Punt | 10–17 |
| CLE | Q4 11:23 | 5 | 25 | Field goal | 10–20 |
| HOU | Q4 8:32 | 2 | -12 | Turnover | 10–20 |
| CLE | Q4 7:47 | 4 | 30 | Touchdown | 10–27 |
| HOU | Q4 5:48 | 9 | 80 | Touchdown | 17–27 |
| CLE | Q4 3:12 | 6 | 26 | End of half | 17–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 22/36 | 256 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Dayne | 16 | 78 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 24/35 | 253 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 29 | 134 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Jason Wright | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.7%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.80
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.36