Closing spread
IND -7
Total
45
Model margin
+2.7est.
IND perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.108EPA / play+0.139
- 44.1%Success rate48.8%
- +0.191EPA / dropback+0.222
- +0.015EPA / rush+0.025
- 10.4%Explosive rate9.7%
- +2.15CPOE+1.87
- 47.2%Third-down rate49.3%
- 66.6%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 2.25Points / drive2.49
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–23 since 1999
JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.4 points. IND are 17-32-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 32 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 11:44 | 3 | 6 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 10:11 | 3 | 11 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q1 9:30 | 7 | 59 | Missed field goal | 0–7 |
| IND | Q1 4:56 | 9 | 53 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| JAX | Q1 1:31 | 16 | 84 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| IND | Q2 5:21 | 15 | 90 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| JAX | Q2 0:06 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–21 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 69 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| IND | Q3 8:06 | 8 | 69 | Turnover | 14–21 |
| JAX | Q3 3:16 | 12 | 58 | Field goal | 17–21 |
| IND | Q4 11:36 | 7 | 63 | Touchdown | 17–28 |
| JAX | Q4 8:26 | 5 | 58 | Turnover | 17–28 |
| IND | Q4 6:39 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 17–28 |
| JAX | Q4 5:48 | 8 | 78 | Touchdown | 25–28 |
| IND | Q4 2:47 | 4 | 27 | End of half | 25–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 24/29 | 257 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 14 | 104 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 11 | 52 | 4.7 | 1 |
| David Garrard | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 20/29 | 288 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 21 | 67 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Kenton Keith | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
4.75%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.2%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.14
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+2.66