Closing spread
IND -7
Total
45
Model margin
+2.7est.
IND perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.108EPA / play+0.139
- 44.1%Success rate48.8%
- +0.191EPA / dropback+0.222
- +0.015EPA / rush+0.025
- 10.4%Explosive rate9.7%
- +2.15CPOE+1.87
- 47.2%Third-down rate49.3%
- 66.6%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 2.25Points / drive2.49
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–22 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. IND are 17-31-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 24/29 | 257 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 14 | 104 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 11 | 52 | 4.7 | 1 |
| David Garrard | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 20/29 | 288 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 21 | 67 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Kenton Keith | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
4.75%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.2%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.14
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+2.66