Closing spread
IND -8.5
Total
41
Model margin
-1.6est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.139EPA / play-0.108
- 48.8%Success rate40.5%
- +0.222EPA / dropback-0.090
- +0.025EPA / rush-0.133
- 9.7%Explosive rate6.5%
- +1.87CPOE+1.46
- 49.3%Third-down rate37.9%
- 60.0%Red-zone TD rate50.1%
- 2.49Points / drive1.35
- 1.8%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 10–7 since 1999
Meetings average 39.8 points. BAL are 5-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 13/17 | 249 | 4 | 0 |
| Jim Sorgi | 3/5 | 26 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 13 | 32 | 2.5 | 2 |
| Kenton Keith | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Clifton Dawson | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Jim Sorgi | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 19/25 | 132 | 1 | 3 |
| Troy Smith | 3/5 | 33 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 17 | 45 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Kyle Boller | 8 | 33 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Musa Smith | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Troy Smith | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.8%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.07
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-1.59