Closing spread
BUF -7
Total
34
Model margin
+5.8est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.078EPA / play-0.125
- 40.4%Success rate38.9%
- -0.084EPA / dropback-0.137
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.112
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.6%
- -3.12CPOE-1.62
- 37.0%Third-down rate33.2%
- 48.1%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
- 1.36Points / drive1.13
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 13:25 | 3 | 28 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| MIA | Q1 12:12 | 3 | -11 | Punt | 0–7 |
| BUF | Q1 10:57 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 0–7 |
| MIA | Q1 8:49 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| BUF | Q1 6:54 | 3 | 61 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| MIA | Q1 5:25 | 2 | -9 | Opp touchdown | 0–21 |
| MIA | Q1 4:35 | 2 | 66 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| BUF | Q1 3:37 | 7 | 20 | Field goal | 7–24 |
| MIA | Q1 0:14 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–24 |
| BUF | Q2 14:04 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 7–24 |
| MIA | Q2 11:01 | 2 | 11 | Turnover | 7–24 |
| BUF | Q2 10:17 | 2 | 11 | Touchdown | 7–31 |
| MIA | Q2 9:33 | 7 | 24 | Turnover | 7–31 |
| BUF | Q2 6:59 | 6 | 29 | Punt | 7–31 |
| MIA | Q2 4:08 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 7–31 |
| BUF | Q2 1:28 | 5 | 52 | End of half | 7–31 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–31 |
| BUF | Q3 14:02 | 2 | 11 | Turnover | 7–31 |
| MIA | Q3 12:58 | 4 | 36 | Touchdown | 14–31 |
| BUF | Q3 11:25 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 14–31 |
| MIA | Q3 10:23 | 8 | 39 | Field goal | 17–31 |
| BUF | Q3 6:30 | 3 | 9 | Missed field goal | 17–31 |
| MIA | Q3 4:27 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 17–31 |
| BUF | Q3 0:58 | 7 | 90 | Touchdown | 17–38 |
| MIA | Q4 12:46 | 11 | 37 | Turnover on downs | 17–38 |
| BUF | Q4 7:33 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 17–38 |
| MIA | Q4 4:12 | 13 | 38 | Turnover | 17–38 |
| BUF | Q4 1:54 | 4 | 24 | End of half | 17–38 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleo Lemon | 22/42 | 241 | 0 | 2 |
| John Beck | 1/2 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samkon Gado | 12 | 52 | 4.3 | 2 |
| Lorenzo Booker | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Cleo Lemon | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
| John Beck | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Edwards | 11/23 | 165 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 15 | 115 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 23 | 107 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Trent Edwards | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
4.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.4%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.60
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.65
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.82