Closing spread
NE -11
Total
49
Model margin
+5.8est.
NE perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Patriots
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.055EPA / play+0.256
- 41.8%Success rate53.7%
- +0.197EPA / dropback+0.422
- -0.100EPA / rush+0.001
- 9.2%Explosive rate8.7%
- +5.79CPOE+7.39
- 47.9%Third-down rate48.4%
- 63.2%Red-zone TD rate73.2%
- 2.10Points / drive3.13
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 14–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. NE are 12-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 19/32 | 187 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 21 | 124 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Najeh Davenport | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 32/46 | 399 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurence Maroney | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
1.59%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.4%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.33
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+5.82