2007 · Week 15 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 25mph
Closing spread
TB -13
Total
37.5
Model margin
+5.7est.
TB perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.148EPA / play-0.004
- 37.3%Success rate41.9%
- -0.138EPA / dropback+0.063
- -0.167EPA / rush-0.100
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.8%
- -3.93CPOE+2.62
- 36.4%Third-down rate39.3%
- 48.0%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
- 1.07Points / drive1.64
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 26–25 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. TB are 28-21-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ATL–TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| ATL | Q1 14:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–7 |
| TB | Q1 12:20 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 0–7 |
| ATL | Q1 9:56 | 6 | 59 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| TB | Q1 6:32 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| ATL | Q1 6:19 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 3–14 |
| TB | Q1 4:48 | 14 | 38 | Field goal | 3–17 |
| ATL | Q2 11:24 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 3–17 |
| TB | Q2 9:17 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 3–17 |
| ATL | Q2 6:05 | 3 | -6 | Turnover | 3–17 |
| TB | Q2 5:15 | 3 | 5 | Touchdown | 3–24 |
| ATL | Q2 4:09 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 3–24 |
| TB | Q2 4:05 | 6 | 24 | Turnover | 3–24 |
| ATL | Q2 1:14 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–24 |
| TB | Q2 0:55 | 4 | 16 | Field goal | 3–27 |
| TB | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 57 | Punt | 3–27 |
| ATL | Q3 7:47 | 3 | 11 | Turnover | 3–27 |
| TB | Q3 6:28 | 3 | 7 | Field goal | 3–30 |
| ATL | Q3 4:08 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–30 |
| TB | Q3 3:17 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 3–30 |
| ATL | Q4 14:41 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 3–30 |
| TB | Q4 12:50 | 8 | 55 | Touchdown | 3–37 |
| ATL | Q4 7:42 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–37 |
| TB | Q4 5:33 | 6 | 30 | End of half | 3–37 |
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Redman | 4/15 | 34 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerious Norwood | 9 | 73 | 8.1 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Chris Redman | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 15/25 | 109 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnest Graham | 22 | 79 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Michael Bennett | 9 | 63 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 13 | 50 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Michael Clayton | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Bruce Gradkowski | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
1.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.1%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.69
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.65
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+5.68