Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
37.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.108EPA / play-0.078
- 40.5%Success rate40.4%
- -0.090EPA / dropback-0.084
- -0.133EPA / rush-0.069
- 6.5%Explosive rate8.3%
- +1.46CPOE-3.12
- 37.9%Third-down rate37.0%
- 50.1%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
- 1.35Points / drive1.36
- 3.2%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 12–7 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. MIA are 6-13 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 10/19 | 159 | 1 | 1 |
| Troy Smith | 5/11 | 49 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 29 | 104 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Musa Smith | 5 | 39 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Kyle Boller | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleo Lemon | 23/39 | 315 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samkon Gado | 18 | 43 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Lorenzo Booker | 8 | 17 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Cleo Lemon | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.78
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.78