2007 · Week 15

Final / OT

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Kyle Boller

16·22

Dolphins

Miami

QB Cleo Lemon

Dolphin Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 20mph

Closing spread

BAL -3

Total

37.5

Model margin

+1.8est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

7.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapDolphins
  • -0.108EPA / play-0.078
  • 40.5%Success rate40.4%
  • -0.090EPA / dropback-0.084
  • -0.133EPA / rush-0.069
  • 6.5%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +1.46CPOE-3.12
  • 37.9%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 50.1%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
  • 1.35Points / drive1.36
  • 3.2%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 12–7 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. MIA are 6-13 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9BAL @ MIA28–6BAL
2023 · W17MIA @ BAL19–56BAL
2022 · W2MIA @ BAL42–38MIA
2021 · W10BAL @ MIA10–22MIA
2019 · W1BAL @ MIA59–10BAL
2017 · W8MIA @ BAL0–40BAL
2016 · W13MIA @ BAL6–38BAL
2015 · W13BAL @ MIA13–15MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–MIA
BALQ1 15:00951Field goal3–0
MIAQ1 9:28711Punt3–0
BALQ1 6:01938Punt3–0
MIAQ1 0:4637Punt3–0
BALQ2 14:441042Field goal6–0
MIAQ2 10:021375Field goal6–3
BALQ2 3:17868Touchdown13–3
MIAQ2 0:473-9Punt13–3
BALQ2 0:15117Missed field goal13–3
MIAQ3 15:0042Punt13–3
BALQ3 13:063-3Punt13–3
MIAQ3 11:151050Touchdown13–10
BALQ3 6:51419Turnover13–10
MIAQ3 4:441592Field goal13–13
BALQ4 12:063-1Punt13–13
MIAQ4 11:02724Punt13–13
BALQ4 7:0231Punt13–13
MIAQ4 5:581043Field goal13–16
BALQ4 1:56959Field goal16–16
MIAQ4 0:0800End of half16–16
BALOT954Missed field goal16–16
MIAOT366Touchdown16–22

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Boller10/1915911
Troy Smith5/114900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willis McGahee291043.60
Musa Smith5397.80
Kyle Boller11111.00
Mike Anderson199.00

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cleo Lemon23/3931510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Samkon Gado18432.41
Lorenzo Booker8172.10
Cleo Lemon3124.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.9%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.78
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.78