Closing spread
CLE -4.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+4.7est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.125EPA / play-0.013
- 38.9%Success rate42.4%
- -0.137EPA / dropback+0.032
- -0.112EPA / rush-0.076
- 7.6%Explosive rate10.4%
- -1.62CPOE-2.23
- 33.2%Third-down rate42.7%
- 50.7%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 1.13Points / drive1.84
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 7–5 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. CLE are 5-6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–CLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 12:36 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CLE | Q1 11:06 | 8 | 41 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| BUF | Q1 6:51 | 6 | 33 | Turnover on downs | 0–3 |
| CLE | Q1 3:49 | 7 | 32 | Punt | 0–3 |
| BUF | Q2 15:00 | 4 | 8 | Safety | 0–5 |
| CLE | Q2 13:48 | 6 | 29 | Turnover on downs | 0–5 |
| BUF | Q2 10:19 | 12 | 38 | Punt | 0–5 |
| CLE | Q2 4:06 | 9 | 62 | Field goal | 0–8 |
| BUF | Q2 1:22 | 3 | 8 | End of half | 0–8 |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 0–8 |
| CLE | Q3 11:32 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 0–8 |
| BUF | Q3 7:52 | 9 | 39 | Punt | 0–8 |
| CLE | Q3 3:22 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–8 |
| BUF | Q3 1:40 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 0–8 |
| CLE | Q4 14:38 | 7 | 39 | Punt | 0–8 |
| BUF | Q4 10:45 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–8 |
| CLE | Q4 9:14 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–8 |
| BUF | Q4 7:43 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–8 |
| CLE | Q4 6:08 | 8 | 49 | Punt | 0–8 |
| BUF | Q4 1:51 | 11 | 60 | Turnover on downs | 0–8 |
| CLE | Q4 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 0–8 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Edwards | 13/33 | 124 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 21 | 82 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Trent Edwards | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Josh Reed | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Evans | 4 | 1 | 36 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 9/24 | 137 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 33 | 163 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.7%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.17
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.74