2007 · Week 15

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Trent Edwards

0·8

Browns

Cleveland

QB Derek Anderson

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 30°F · wind 32mph

Closing spread

CLE -4.5

Total

36.5

Model margin

+4.7est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapBrowns
  • -0.125EPA / play-0.013
  • 38.9%Success rate42.4%
  • -0.137EPA / dropback+0.032
  • -0.112EPA / rush-0.076
  • 7.6%Explosive rate10.4%
  • -1.62CPOE-2.23
  • 33.2%Third-down rate42.7%
  • 50.7%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
  • 1.13Points / drive1.84
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 7–5 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. CLE are 5-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16BUF @ CLE23–20BUF
2022 · W11CLE @ BUF23–31BUF
2019 · W10BUF @ CLE16–19CLE
2016 · W15CLE @ BUF13–33BUF
2014 · W13CLE @ BUF10–26BUF
2013 · W5BUF @ CLE24–37CLE
2012 · W3BUF @ CLE24–14BUF
2010 · W14CLE @ BUF6–13BUF

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trent Edwards13/3312400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch21823.90
Fred Jackson7162.30
Trent Edwards11212.00
Josh Reed1-6-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Lee Evans41360

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Anderson9/2413700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis331634.90
Jason Wright3113.70
Derek Anderson100.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.7%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.17
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.74