Closing spread
DEN -2.5
Total
47
Model margin
+4.8est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.001EPA / play-0.015
- 42.8%Success rate45.4%
- +0.071EPA / dropback+0.012
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.052
- 9.4%Explosive rate7.5%
- +1.55CPOE+3.67
- 40.0%Third-down rate44.5%
- 49.6%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
- 1.46Points / drive1.85
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 7–4 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. HOU are 5-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 27/39 | 254 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selvin Young | 8 | 34 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Travis Henry | 10 | 27 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sage Rosenfels | 16/27 | 200 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Dayne | 11 | 67 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Darius Walker | 13 | 66 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Sage Rosenfels | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
1.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.9%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.17
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.44
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.84