Closing spread
NE -20.5
Total
41
Model margin
+7.4est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.075EPA / play+0.256
- 41.4%Success rate53.7%
- -0.065EPA / dropback+0.422
- -0.088EPA / rush+0.001
- 7.7%Explosive rate8.7%
- +0.41CPOE+7.39
- 37.1%Third-down rate48.4%
- 41.2%Red-zone TD rate73.2%
- 1.32Points / drive3.13
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-22-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 25/38 | 186 | 0 | 0 |
| Kellen Clemens | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Brad Smith | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Washington | 4 | 57 | 14.3 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 9 | 19 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 14/27 | 140 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurence Maroney | 26 | 104 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.3%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.81
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.37