Closing spread
IND -6.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.015EPA / play+0.139
- 45.4%Success rate48.8%
- +0.012EPA / dropback+0.222
- -0.052EPA / rush+0.025
- 7.5%Explosive rate9.7%
- +3.67CPOE+1.87
- 44.5%Third-down rate49.3%
- 65.4%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 1.85Points / drive2.49
- 3.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15–1 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. IND are 28-19-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | HOU–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 81 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| IND | Q1 11:14 | 10 | 54 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| HOU | Q1 6:55 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 7–3 |
| IND | Q1 3:48 | 12 | 92 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| HOU | Q2 12:08 | 5 | 27 | Punt | 7–10 |
| IND | Q2 10:03 | 8 | 77 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| HOU | Q2 5:42 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–17 |
| IND | Q2 5:20 | 4 | 26 | Touchdown | 7–24 |
| HOU | Q2 3:39 | 4 | 0 | Punt | 7–24 |
| IND | Q2 1:44 | 6 | 44 | Turnover | 7–24 |
| HOU | Q2 0:21 | 3 | 20 | Missed field goal | 7–24 |
| IND | Q2 0:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–24 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 68 | Touchdown | 7–31 |
| HOU | Q3 10:20 | 7 | 34 | Turnover | 7–31 |
| IND | Q3 6:28 | 7 | 66 | Touchdown | 7–38 |
| HOU | Q3 3:08 | 13 | 59 | Turnover | 7–38 |
| IND | Q4 11:38 | 10 | 38 | Punt | 7–38 |
| HOU | Q4 4:55 | 6 | 34 | Punt | 7–38 |
| IND | Q4 3:10 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 7–38 |
| HOU | Q4 1:44 | 4 | 31 | Touchdown | 15–38 |
| IND | Q4 1:07 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 15–38 |
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sage Rosenfels | 22/36 | 233 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Walker | 19 | 66 | 3.5 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 28/35 | 311 | 3 | 0 |
| Jim Sorgi | 3/5 | 29 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenton Keith | 10 | 60 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Clifton Dawson | 10 | 21 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Dallas Clark | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Jim Sorgi | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
4.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.88
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.44
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.76