Closing spread
IND -6.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.015EPA / play+0.139
- 45.4%Success rate48.8%
- +0.012EPA / dropback+0.222
- -0.052EPA / rush+0.025
- 7.5%Explosive rate9.7%
- +3.67CPOE+1.87
- 44.5%Third-down rate49.3%
- 65.4%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 1.85Points / drive2.49
- 3.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 33–15–1 since 1999
HOU have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. IND are 27-19-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sage Rosenfels | 22/36 | 233 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Walker | 19 | 66 | 3.5 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 28/35 | 311 | 3 | 0 |
| Jim Sorgi | 3/5 | 29 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenton Keith | 10 | 60 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Clifton Dawson | 10 | 21 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Dallas Clark | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Jim Sorgi | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
4.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.88
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.44
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.76