Closing spread
HOU -7
Total
42
Model margin
+3.8est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.108EPA / play-0.015
- 44.1%Success rate45.4%
- +0.191EPA / dropback+0.012
- +0.015EPA / rush-0.052
- 10.4%Explosive rate7.5%
- +2.15CPOE+3.67
- 47.2%Third-down rate44.5%
- 66.6%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
- 2.25Points / drive1.85
- 1.7%Turnover rate3.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 32–16 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. HOU are 27-20-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinn Gray | 25/39 | 302 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaBrandon Toefield | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Reggie Williams | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Quinn Gray | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sage Rosenfels | 11/18 | 128 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Dayne | 21 | 88 | 4.2 | 2 |
| Darius Walker | 10 | 86 | 8.6 | 1 |
| Sage Rosenfels | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
4.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.1%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.02
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+5.23
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.77