Closing spread
NE -14
Total
47.5
Model margin
+6.6est.
NE perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NE lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. NE are 11-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 13:13 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 12:10 | 6 | 35 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 9:45 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 6:55 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 5:13 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 5:07 | 6 | 17 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| NE | Q1 2:55 | 10 | 65 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| LAC | Q2 13:48 | 8 | 65 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| NE | Q2 9:14 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 6–7 |
| LAC | Q2 7:09 | 5 | 13 | Turnover | 6–7 |
| NE | Q2 4:36 | 2 | 24 | Touchdown | 6–14 |
| LAC | Q2 3:51 | 3 | 15 | Turnover | 6–14 |
| NE | Q2 2:24 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 6–14 |
| LAC | Q2 1:46 | 5 | 43 | Field goal | 9–14 |
| NE | Q2 0:08 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 9–14 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 11 | Turnover | 9–14 |
| LAC | Q3 12:32 | 7 | 43 | Field goal | 12–14 |
| NE | Q3 8:36 | 9 | 65 | Turnover | 12–14 |
| LAC | Q3 2:56 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 12–14 |
| NE | Q3 1:32 | 8 | 67 | Touchdown | 12–21 |
| LAC | Q4 12:15 | 9 | 48 | Punt | 12–21 |
| NE | Q4 9:13 | 13 | 67 | End of half | 12–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 22/33 | 209 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurence Maroney | 25 | 122 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Randy Moss | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.3%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.92
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+6.56
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.