Closing spread
IND -6.5
Total
45
Model margin
+4.8est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play+0.127
- 43.2%Success rate48.9%
- -0.010EPA / dropback+0.241
- +0.036EPA / rush-0.077
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.8%
- +1.59CPOE+4.60
- 46.1%Third-down rate48.9%
- 59.7%Red-zone TD rate73.5%
- 1.59Points / drive2.29
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–22 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. IND are 17-31-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 14/28 | 122 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 21 | 97 | 4.6 | 1 |
| David Garrard | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Montell Owens | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torry Holt | 3 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 5 | 8 | 26 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 3 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Troy Williamson | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Nate Hughes | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Greg Estandia | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Sims-Walker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 28/38 | 301 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 17 | 42 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Donald Brown | 11 | 33 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Wayne | 10 | 14 | 162 | 1 |
| Dallas Clark | 4 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 5 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Austin Collie | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Gijon Robinson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
4.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.9%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.32
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.80