2009 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB David Garrard

12·14

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

Lucas Oil Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -6.5

Total

45

Model margin

+4.8est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapColts
  • +0.008EPA / play+0.127
  • 43.2%Success rate48.9%
  • -0.010EPA / dropback+0.241
  • +0.036EPA / rush-0.077
  • 8.2%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +1.59CPOE+4.60
  • 46.1%Third-down rate48.9%
  • 59.7%Red-zone TD rate73.5%
  • 1.59Points / drive2.29
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 27–23 since 1999

JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.4 points. IND are 17-32-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8IND @ JAX7–42JAX
2025 · W17JAX @ IND23–17JAX
2025 · W14IND @ JAX19–36JAX
2024 · W18JAX @ IND23–26IND
2024 · W5IND @ JAX34–37JAX
2023 · W6IND @ JAX20–37JAX
2023 · W1JAX @ IND31–21JAX
2022 · W6JAX @ IND27–34IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–IND
INDQ1 15:001061Turnover0–0
JAXQ1 9:59937Punt0–0
INDQ1 4:211258Turnover0–0
JAXQ2 13:531052Field goal3–0
INDQ2 8:581178Touchdown3–7
JAXQ2 3:39741Field goal6–7
INDQ2 0:5949Turnover on downs6–7
JAXQ2 0:0300Missed field goal6–7
JAXQ3 15:00522Punt6–7
INDQ3 12:301091Touchdown6–14
JAXQ3 6:5635Punt6–14
INDQ3 5:2939Punt6–14
JAXQ3 3:5632Punt6–14
INDQ3 2:5730Missed field goal6–14
JAXQ3 1:371158Touchdown12–14
INDQ4 11:07736Punt12–14
JAXQ4 6:5539Punt12–14
INDQ4 5:17727Turnover on downs12–14
JAXQ4 1:5942Turnover on downs12–14
INDQ4 1:1500End of half12–14

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Garrard14/2812200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew21974.61
David Garrard4143.50
Montell Owens133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Torry Holt35470
Maurice Jones-Drew58260
Marcedes Lewis36230
Troy Williamson12100
Nate Hughes1270
Greg Estandia0200
Mike Sims-Walker0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning28/3830111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joseph Addai17422.51
Donald Brown11333.00
Peyton Manning3-4-1.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Reggie Wayne10141621
Dallas Clark46390
Joseph Addai56350
Pierre Garcon35240
Donald Brown22160
Austin Collie23150
Jacob Tamme1160
Gijon Robinson1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

4.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.9%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.32
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.80