2009 · Week 1

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Brodie Croyle

24·38

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 76°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

BAL -13

Total

36.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

1.6%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapRavens
  • -0.123EPA / play+0.058
  • 36.4%Success rate44.3%
  • -0.113EPA / dropback+0.078
  • -0.139EPA / rush+0.031
  • 8.0%Explosive rate9.0%
  • -4.70CPOE+2.29
  • 27.1%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 56.9%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
  • 1.20Points / drive1.99
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 10–5 since 1999

KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. BAL are 5-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4BAL @ KC20–37KC
2024 · W1BAL @ KC20–27KC
2023 · playoffsKC @ BAL17–10KC
2021 · W2KC @ BAL35–36BAL
2020 · W3KC @ BAL34–20KC
2019 · W3BAL @ KC28–33KC
2018 · W14BAL @ KC24–27KC
2015 · W15KC @ BAL34–14KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–BAL
KCQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:35854Field goal0–3
KCQ1 10:193-5Punt0–3
BALQ1 8:481380Touchdown0–10
KCQ1 2:0439Punt0–10
BALQ1 0:36511Punt0–10
KCQ2 13:1735Punt0–10
BALQ2 11:2937Opp touchdown7–10
BALQ2 9:551263Missed field goal7–10
KCQ2 3:49846End of half7–10
BALQ3 15:001157Turnover7–10
KCQ3 9:4233Touchdown14–10
BALQ3 8:521164Touchdown14–17
KCQ3 3:5739Punt14–17
BALQ3 1:20411Punt14–17
KCQ4 14:48655Field goal17–17
BALQ4 11:57976Touchdown17–24
KCQ4 8:10765Touchdown24–24
BALQ4 5:21969Touchdown24–31
KCQ4 2:064-12Turnover on downs24–31
BALQ4 1:3449Touchdown24–38
KCQ4 0:31312End of half24–38

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brodie Croyle16/2417720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Larry Johnson11201.80
Jamaal Charles482.00
Tyler Thigpen122.00
Jackie Battle1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mark Bradley47730
Dwayne Bowe45401
Jamaal Charles44290
Bobby Engram22190
Sean Ryan15101
Larry Johnson1160

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco26/4330731

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice191085.70
Willis McGahee10444.41
Joe Flacco5183.60
Mark Clayton199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mark Clayton59771
Todd Heap58741
Derrick Mason410470
Kelley Washington33430
Willis McGahee45311
Ray Rice24120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +137.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

1.64%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.0%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.99
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.52
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.96