Closing spread
BAL -13
Total
36.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.123EPA / play+0.058
- 36.4%Success rate44.3%
- -0.113EPA / dropback+0.078
- -0.139EPA / rush+0.031
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.0%
- -4.70CPOE+2.29
- 27.1%Third-down rate41.4%
- 56.9%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
- 1.20Points / drive1.99
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 10–5 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. BAL are 5-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brodie Croyle | 16/24 | 177 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 11 | 20 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Thigpen | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Bradley | 4 | 7 | 73 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 4 | 5 | 40 | 1 |
| Jamaal Charles | 4 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Bobby Engram | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Sean Ryan | 1 | 5 | 10 | 1 |
| Larry Johnson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 26/43 | 307 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 19 | 108 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Joe Flacco | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Mark Clayton | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Clayton | 5 | 9 | 77 | 1 |
| Todd Heap | 5 | 8 | 74 | 1 |
| Derrick Mason | 4 | 10 | 47 | 0 |
| Kelley Washington | 3 | 3 | 43 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 4 | 5 | 31 | 1 |
| Ray Rice | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.64%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.99
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-2.52
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.96