Closing spread
SD -3
Total
40
Model margin
+0.3est.
SD perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Ravens
- DoubtfulTom ZbikowskiSConcussion· DNP
- QuestionableL.J. SmithTEHamstring· Limited
- ProbableEd ReedSConcussion· Full
- ProbableJarret JohnsonLBShoulder· Full
- ProbableTavares GoodenLBKnee· Full
- ProbableTerrell SuggsLBConcussion· Full
Chargers
- OutLaDainian TomlinsonRBAnkle· DNP
- OutNick HardwickCAnkle· DNP
- OutTravis JohnsonDTGroin· DNP
- QuestionableAntwan ApplewhiteLBHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableJamal WilliamsDTElbow· DNP
- QuestionableLouis VasquezGKnee· DNP
- ProbableMike ScifresPGroin· Limited
- ProbableMarcus McNeillTHand· Full
Win probability
- Chargers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
BAL lead 10–4 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. SD are 5-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BAL–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 12:48 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 11:40 | 6 | 99 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| BAL | Q1 9:18 | 9 | 68 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q1 4:49 | 6 | 56 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| BAL | Q1 0:44 | 12 | 57 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| LAC | Q2 10:50 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 14–10 |
| BAL | Q2 8:04 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–10 |
| LAC | Q2 6:34 | 7 | 58 | Field goal | 14–13 |
| BAL | Q2 3:00 | 6 | 70 | Touchdown | 21–13 |
| LAC | Q2 1:38 | 7 | 41 | Field goal | 21–16 |
| BAL | Q2 0:08 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 21–16 |
| BAL | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 11 | Punt | 21–16 |
| LAC | Q3 12:13 | 5 | 21 | Turnover | 21–16 |
| BAL | Q3 10:06 | 4 | 22 | Touchdown | 28–16 |
| LAC | Q3 8:24 | 12 | 78 | Touchdown | 28–23 |
| BAL | Q3 2:26 | 10 | 55 | Turnover | 28–23 |
| LAC | Q4 11:15 | 8 | 54 | Field goal | 28–26 |
| BAL | Q4 7:11 | 4 | 24 | Punt | 28–26 |
| LAC | Q4 4:45 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 28–26 |
| BAL | Q4 4:28 | 3 | -2 | Field goal | 31–26 |
| LAC | Q4 2:54 | 8 | 53 | Turnover on downs | 31–26 |
| BAL | Q4 0:30 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 31–26 |
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 17/26 | 190 | 2 | 1 |
| Mark Clayton | 1/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 15 | 79 | 5.3 | 2 |
| Ray Rice | 8 | 36 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelley Washington | 4 | 4 | 58 | 1 |
| Ray Rice | 5 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Mark Clayton | 1 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Todd Heap | 1 | 4 | 9 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.8%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.14
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.27
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.