Closing spread
SD -3
Total
40
Model margin
+0.3est.
SD perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
BAL lead 10–4 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. SD are 5-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 17/26 | 190 | 2 | 1 |
| Mark Clayton | 1/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 15 | 79 | 5.3 | 2 |
| Ray Rice | 8 | 36 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelley Washington | 4 | 4 | 58 | 1 |
| Ray Rice | 5 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Mark Clayton | 1 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Todd Heap | 1 | 4 | 9 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.8%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.14
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.27
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.