Closing spread
TEN -7
Total
40.5
Model margin
-1.8est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
4.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.043EPA / play+0.010
- 46.2%Success rate40.8%
- +0.159EPA / dropback+0.042
- -0.149EPA / rush-0.026
- 9.6%Explosive rate9.0%
- +4.51CPOE-2.63
- 41.5%Third-down rate41.0%
- 55.5%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
- 1.79Points / drive1.79
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 24–24 since 1999
HOU have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. TEN are 19-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 25/39 | 357 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Slaton | 17 | 34 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 8 | 25 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 10 | 16 | 149 | 2 |
| Jacoby Jones | 2 | 4 | 73 | 1 |
| Owen Daniels | 6 | 8 | 72 | 1 |
| Joel Dreessen | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Steve Slaton | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| David Anderson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 21/33 | 216 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 16 | 197 | 12.3 | 2 |
| LenDale White | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 9 | 11 | 87 | 1 |
| Alge Crumpler | 4 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 4 | 7 | 36 | 1 |
| Justin Gage | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| LenDale White | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
4.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.3%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.29
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.22
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-1.79