2009 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

34·31

Titans

Tennessee

QB Kerry Collins

LP Field · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

TEN -7

Total

40.5

Model margin

-1.8est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

4.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapTitans
  • +0.043EPA / play+0.010
  • 46.2%Success rate40.8%
  • +0.159EPA / dropback+0.042
  • -0.149EPA / rush-0.026
  • 9.6%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +4.51CPOE-2.63
  • 41.5%Third-down rate41.0%
  • 55.5%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.79
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 25–24 since 1999

HOU have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. TEN are 19-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5HOU @ TEN26–3HOU
2025 · W11HOU @ TEN16–13HOU
2025 · W4TEN @ HOU0–26HOU
2024 · W18HOU @ TEN23–14HOU
2024 · W12TEN @ HOU32–27TEN
2023 · W17TEN @ HOU3–26HOU
2023 · W15HOU @ TEN19–16HOU
2022 · W16HOU @ TEN19–14HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–TEN
HOUQ1 15:00515Punt0–0
TENQ1 11:51778Touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 8:311477Touchdown7–7
TENQ1 2:13275Touchdown7–14
HOUQ1 1:1948Punt7–14
TENQ2 14:44754Touchdown7–21
HOUQ2 12:00172Touchdown14–21
TENQ2 11:442-3Turnover14–21
HOUQ2 10:48229Touchdown21–21
TENQ2 10:35525Punt21–21
HOUQ2 7:04853Field goal24–21
TENQ2 2:131054Field goal24–24
HOUQ2 0:0200End of half24–24
TENQ3 15:0034Punt24–24
HOUQ3 13:5139Punt24–24
TENQ3 11:43594Touchdown24–31
HOUQ3 9:5335Punt24–31
TENQ3 8:493-1Punt24–31
HOUQ3 7:101266Touchdown31–31
TENQ3 1:1539Punt31–31
HOUQ4 15:0036Punt31–31
TENQ4 13:53840Turnover on downs31–31
HOUQ4 10:2236Punt31–31
TENQ4 8:4438Punt31–31
HOUQ4 7:10863Field goal34–31
TENQ4 2:55412Turnover34–31
HOUQ4 1:32213End of half34–31

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub25/3935740

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Steve Slaton17342.00
Chris Brown8253.10
Matt Schaub441.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Johnson10161492
Jacoby Jones24731
Owen Daniels68721
Joel Dreessen33310
Steve Slaton35250
David Anderson1170
Chris Brown0200

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins21/3321621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson1619712.32
LenDale White6254.20
Nate Washington11414.00
Kerry Collins341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Johnson911871
Alge Crumpler44440
Nate Washington47361
Justin Gage24270
Kenny Britt22220
LenDale White0100
Jared Cook0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

4.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.3%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.29
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.22
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin-1.79