Closing spread
NE -3.5
Total
45
Model margin
+3.1est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.118EPA / play-0.060
- 49.1%Success rate39.7%
- +0.223EPA / dropback-0.151
- -0.033EPA / rush+0.011
- 8.3%Explosive rate10.1%
- +3.43CPOE-5.62
- 44.2%Third-down rate37.4%
- 60.0%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 2.12Points / drive1.61
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 22-32-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 23/47 | 216 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 8 | 46 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Laurence Maroney | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 8 | 16 | 98 | 0 |
| Joey Galloway | 5 | 12 | 53 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 4 | 8 | 24 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Chris Baker | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Laurence Maroney | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 14/22 | 163 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Washington | 14 | 58 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 14 | 54 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerricho Cotchery | 4 | 6 | 87 | 0 |
| Chansi Stuckey | 4 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Dustin Keller | 3 | 5 | 22 | 1 |
| Leon Washington | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
6.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.4%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.53
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.09