2009 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

9·16

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

Giants Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 69°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

NE -3.5

Total

45

Model margin

+3.1est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapJets
  • +0.118EPA / play-0.060
  • 49.1%Success rate39.7%
  • +0.223EPA / dropback-0.151
  • -0.033EPA / rush+0.011
  • 8.3%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +3.43CPOE-5.62
  • 44.2%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 60.0%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 2.12Points / drive1.61
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 43–14 since 1999

NE have won 4 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 23-32-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6NYJ @ NE19–26NE
2025 · W17NE @ NYJ42–10NE
2025 · W11NYJ @ NE14–27NE
2024 · W8NYJ @ NE22–25NE
2024 · W3NE @ NYJ3–24NYJ
2023 · W18NYJ @ NE17–3NYJ
2023 · W3NE @ NYJ15–10NE
2022 · W11NYJ @ NE3–10NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–NYJ
NEQ1 15:00737Punt0–0
NYJQ1 11:463-12Punt0–0
NEQ1 9:4135Punt0–0
NYJQ1 8:4712Turnover0–0
NEQ1 8:36510Field goal3–0
NYJQ1 6:5037Punt3–0
NEQ1 5:16723Turnover3–0
NYJQ1 1:4136Punt3–0
NEQ2 15:00938Field goal6–0
NYJQ2 11:30952Field goal6–3
NEQ2 5:591384Field goal9–3
NYJQ2 0:1712End of half9–3
NYJQ3 15:00356Touchdown9–10
NEQ3 13:5730Punt9–10
NYJQ3 12:211049Field goal9–13
NEQ3 8:22843Punt9–13
NYJQ3 3:091470Field goal9–16
NEQ4 9:48517Punt9–16
NYJQ4 6:3937Punt9–16
NEQ4 5:01724Punt9–16
NYJQ4 3:36417Punt9–16
NEQ4 1:48518Turnover on downs9–16
NYJQ4 1:0200End of half9–16

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady23/4721601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Taylor8465.80
Laurence Maroney6233.80
Kevin Faulk382.70
Sammy Morris242.00
Tom Brady122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julian Edelman816980
Joey Galloway512530
Randy Moss48240
Benjamin Watson34230
Sammy Morris13140
Kevin Faulk1130
Chris Baker1210
Laurence Maroney0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez14/2216310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leon Washington14584.10
Thomas Jones14543.90
Brad Smith177.00
Mark Sanchez2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerricho Cotchery46870
Chansi Stuckey47370
Dustin Keller35221
Leon Washington23180
Thomas Jones11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

6.86%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.4%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.53
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+3.09